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St. Albans Saints vs Oakleigh Cannons — Victoria NPL 2026

St. Albans Saints
St. Albans Saints
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
6/20/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 19Churchill Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

St. Albans Saints24%
×Draw23%
Oakleigh Cannons53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Albans Saints
1.14
Oakleigh Cannons
1.81

Oakleigh Cannons creates 59% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 87 away

creates per match

St. Albans Saints
1.16
Oakleigh Cannons
1.85

allows per match

St. Albans Saints
1.78
Oakleigh Cannons
1.11

finishing

St. Albans Saints+0.00on par
Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Albans Saints ↓

Oakleigh Cannons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

St. Albans Saints or draw
47%
St. Albans Saints or Oakleigh Cannons
77%
Draw or Oakleigh Cannons
76%

Winning margin

St. Albans Saints wins by 2+
9%
Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

St. Albans Saints 1+ goals
68%
St. Albans Saints 2+ goals
32%
St. Albans Saints 3+ goals
11%
Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
84%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
54%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)
31%
Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Albans Saints at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.78 · 73 matches

Oakleigh Cannons away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Albans Saints attack 1.16 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.85 + St. Albans Saints defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

St. Albans Saints scores more
24%
level
23%
Oakleigh Cannons scores more
53%

Oakleigh Cannons at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Albans Saints vs Oakleigh Cannons

St. Albans Saints beat Oakleigh Cannons 3-2 in Victoria NPL on June 20, 2025.

The match was played at Churchill Reserve in Melbourne.