Oakleigh Cannons 1–2 St. Albans Saints

Oakleigh Cannons

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

St. Albans Saints

3/14/2025

Victoria NPL · Round 6Jack Edwards Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons63%

×Draw20%

St. Albans Saints17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oakleigh CannonsExpected goals in this matchSt. Albans Saints

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.08

Oakleigh Cannons

2.22

St. Albans Saints

1.08

Oakleigh Cannons creates 106% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 74 away

2.44

creates per match

1.07

1.08

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons

2.44

St. Albans Saints

1.07

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons

1.08

St. Albans Saints

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

St. Albans Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

St. Albans Saints →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw

83%

Oakleigh Cannons or St. Albans Saints

80%

Draw or St. Albans Saints

37%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+

40%

St. Albans Saints wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals

89%

Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals

65%

Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals

38%

St. Albans Saints 1+ goals

66%

St. Albans Saints 2+ goals

29%

St. Albans Saints 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)

78%

St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

St. Albans Saints away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.01 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + St. Albans Saints defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.22

St. Albans Saints attack 1.07 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more

63%

level

20%

St. Albans Saints scores more

17%

Oakleigh Cannons at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff