St. Albans Saints 1–2 Melbourne Knights

St. Albans Saints

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Melbourne Knights

6/9/2024

Victoria NPL · Round 17Churchill Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

St. Albans Saints38%

×Draw24%

Melbourne Knights38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Albans SaintsExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Knights

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.54

St. Albans Saints

1.56

Melbourne Knights

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 78 away

1.16

creates per match

1.29

1.78

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

St. Albans Saints

1.16

Melbourne Knights

1.29

allows per match

St. Albans Saints

1.78

Melbourne Knights

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Albans Saints+0.00on par

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Albans Saints ↓

Melbourne Knights →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

St. Albans Saints or draw

62%

St. Albans Saints or Melbourne Knights

76%

Draw or Melbourne Knights

62%

Winning margin

St. Albans Saints wins by 2+

19%

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

St. Albans Saints 1+ goals

79%

St. Albans Saints 2+ goals

46%

St. Albans Saints 3+ goals

21%

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals

79%

Melbourne Knights 2+ goals

45%

Melbourne Knights 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)

51%

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Albans Saints at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.78 · 73 matches

Melbourne Knights away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.96 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Albans Saints attack 1.16 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.56

Melbourne Knights attack 1.29 + St. Albans Saints defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

St. Albans Saints scores more

38%

level

24%

Melbourne Knights scores more

38%

St. Albans Saints at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "St. Albans Saints will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff