Melbourne Knights 3–0 St. Albans Saints

Melbourne Knights

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

St. Albans Saints

3/3/2024

Victoria NPL · Round 4Knights Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Melbourne Knights50%

×Draw23%

St. Albans Saints27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne KnightsExpected goals in this matchSt. Albans Saints

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.28

Melbourne Knights

1.81

St. Albans Saints

1.28

Melbourne Knights creates 41% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 75 away

1.62

creates per match

1.05

1.51

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Melbourne Knights

1.62

St. Albans Saints

1.05

allows per match

Melbourne Knights

1.51

St. Albans Saints

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par

St. Albans Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Knights ↓

St. Albans Saints →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Melbourne Knights or draw

73%

Melbourne Knights or St. Albans Saints

77%

Draw or St. Albans Saints

50%

Winning margin

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+

27%

St. Albans Saints wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals

84%

Melbourne Knights 2+ goals

54%

Melbourne Knights 3+ goals

27%

St. Albans Saints 1+ goals

72%

St. Albans Saints 2+ goals

37%

St. Albans Saints 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)

65%

St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Knights at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.51 · 77 matches

St. Albans Saints away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Knights attack 1.62 + St. Albans Saints defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

St. Albans Saints attack 1.05 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Melbourne Knights scores more

50%

level

23%

St. Albans Saints scores more

27%

Melbourne Knights at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Melbourne Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff