St. Albans Saints 2–1 Manningham United Blues

St. Albans Saints

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Manningham United Blues

3/22/2024

Victoria NPL · Round 7Churchill Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

St. Albans Saints53%

×Draw21%

Manningham United Blues26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Albans SaintsExpected goals in this matchManningham United Blues

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.46

St. Albans Saints

2.15

Manningham United Blues

1.46

St. Albans Saints creates 47% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 13 away

1.16

creates per match

1.15

1.78

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

St. Albans Saints

1.16

Manningham United Blues

1.15

allows per match

St. Albans Saints

1.78

Manningham United Blues

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Albans Saints+0.00on par

Manningham United Blues+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Albans Saints ↓

Manningham United Blues →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

St. Albans Saints or draw

74%

St. Albans Saints or Manningham United Blues

79%

Draw or Manningham United Blues

47%

Winning margin

St. Albans Saints wins by 2+

32%

Manningham United Blues wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

St. Albans Saints 1+ goals

88%

St. Albans Saints 2+ goals

63%

St. Albans Saints 3+ goals

36%

Manningham United Blues 1+ goals

77%

Manningham United Blues 2+ goals

43%

Manningham United Blues 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)

67%

Manningham United Blues (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Albans Saints at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.78 · 73 matches

Manningham United Blues away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Albans Saints attack 1.16 + Manningham United Blues defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.15

Manningham United Blues attack 1.15 + St. Albans Saints defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

St. Albans Saints scores more

53%

level

21%

Manningham United Blues scores more

26%

St. Albans Saints at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "St. Albans Saints will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff