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Manningham United Blues vs St. Albans Saints — Victoria NPL 2026

Manningham United Blues
Manningham United Blues
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
St. Albans Saints
St. Albans Saints
6/29/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 20Pettys Reserve Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Manningham United Blues45%
×Draw21%
St. Albans Saints33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manningham United Blues
2.04
St. Albans Saints
1.73

Manningham United Blues creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 75 away

creates per match

Manningham United Blues
2.08
St. Albans Saints
1.07

allows per match

Manningham United Blues
2.38
St. Albans Saints
2.00

finishing

Manningham United Blues+0.00on par
St. Albans Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manningham United Blues ↓

St. Albans Saints →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Manningham United Blues or draw
67%
Manningham United Blues or St. Albans Saints
79%
Draw or St. Albans Saints
55%

Winning margin

Manningham United Blues wins by 2+
26%
St. Albans Saints wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Manningham United Blues 1+ goals
87%
Manningham United Blues 2+ goals
60%
Manningham United Blues 3+ goals
33%
St. Albans Saints 1+ goals
82%
St. Albans Saints 2+ goals
52%
St. Albans Saints 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Manningham United Blues (draw refunded)
58%
St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manningham United Blues at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

St. Albans Saints away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.00 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manningham United Blues attack 2.08 + St. Albans Saints defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

St. Albans Saints attack 1.07 + Manningham United Blues defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Manningham United Blues scores more
45%
level
21%
St. Albans Saints scores more
33%

Manningham United Blues at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Manningham United Blues will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Manningham United Blues 4–0 St. Albans Saints

Manningham United Blues beat St. Albans Saints 4-0 in Victoria NPL on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Pettys Reserve Pitch 1 in Melbourne.