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St. Albans Saints vs Hume City — Victoria NPL 2026

St. Albans Saints
St. Albans Saints
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Hume City
Hume City
6/23/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 19Churchill Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

St. Albans Saints30%
×Draw23%
Hume City46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Albans Saints
1.36
Hume City
1.74

Hume City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 86 away

creates per match

St. Albans Saints
1.16
Hume City
1.70

allows per match

St. Albans Saints
1.78
Hume City
1.56

finishing

St. Albans Saints+0.00on par
Hume City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Albans Saints ↓

Hume City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

St. Albans Saints or draw
54%
St. Albans Saints or Hume City
77%
Draw or Hume City
70%

Winning margin

St. Albans Saints wins by 2+
13%
Hume City wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

St. Albans Saints 1+ goals
74%
St. Albans Saints 2+ goals
39%
St. Albans Saints 3+ goals
16%
Hume City 1+ goals
82%
Hume City 2+ goals
52%
Hume City 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)
39%
Hume City (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Albans Saints at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.78 · 73 matches

Hume City away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Albans Saints attack 1.16 + Hume City defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hume City attack 1.70 + St. Albans Saints defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

St. Albans Saints scores more
30%
level
23%
Hume City scores more
46%

Hume City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hume City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: St. Albans Saints 0–3 Hume City

Hume City beat St. Albans Saints 3-0 in Victoria NPL on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Churchill Reserve in Melbourne.