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Hume City vs St. Albans Saints — Victoria NPL 2026

Hume City
Hume City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
St. Albans Saints
St. Albans Saints
4/18/2026Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Hume City53%
×Draw23%
St. Albans Saints24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hume City
1.81
St. Albans Saints
1.15

Hume City creates 57% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 75 away

creates per match

Hume City
1.63
St. Albans Saints
1.05

allows per match

Hume City
1.25
St. Albans Saints
2.00

finishing

Hume City+0.00on par
St. Albans Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hume City ↓

St. Albans Saints →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hume City or draw
76%
Hume City or St. Albans Saints
77%
Draw or St. Albans Saints
47%

Winning margin

Hume City wins by 2+
29%
St. Albans Saints wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hume City 1+ goals
84%
Hume City 2+ goals
54%
Hume City 3+ goals
27%
St. Albans Saints 1+ goals
68%
St. Albans Saints 2+ goals
32%
St. Albans Saints 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hume City (draw refunded)
69%
St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hume City at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 88 matches

St. Albans Saints away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hume City attack 1.63 + St. Albans Saints defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

St. Albans Saints attack 1.05 + Hume City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hume City scores more
53%
level
23%
St. Albans Saints scores more
24%

Hume City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hume City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hume City vs St. Albans Saints

St. Albans Saints beat Hume City 1-0 in Victoria NPL on April 18, 2026.