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SSVg Velbert vs Kray — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SSVg Velbert
SSVg Velbert
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kray
Kray
5/21/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 40IMS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

SSVg Velbert73%
×Draw16%
Kray11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSVg Velbert
2.67
Kray
0.97

SSVg Velbert creates 175% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 40 away

creates per match

SSVg Velbert
2.86
Kray
1.00

allows per match

SSVg Velbert
0.93
Kray
2.48

finishing

SSVg Velbert+0.00on par
Kray+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSVg Velbert ↓

Kray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SSVg Velbert or draw
89%
SSVg Velbert or Kray
84%
Draw or Kray
27%

Winning margin

SSVg Velbert wins by 2+
52%
Kray wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

SSVg Velbert 1+ goals
93%
SSVg Velbert 2+ goals
74%
SSVg Velbert 3+ goals
49%
Kray 1+ goals
62%
Kray 2+ goals
25%
Kray 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)
86%
Kray (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSVg Velbert at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Kray away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSVg Velbert attack 2.86 + Kray defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.67

Kray attack 1.00 + SSVg Velbert defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

SSVg Velbert scores more
73%
level
16%
Kray scores more
11%

SSVg Velbert at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SSVg Velbert 2–0 Kray

SSVg Velbert beat Kray 2-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at IMS Arena in Velbert.