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Kray vs SSVg Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kray
Kray
CANC
13:00
SSVg Velbert
SSVg Velbert
4/18/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 36KrayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kray24%
×Draw21%
SSVg Velbert56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kray
1.38
SSVg Velbert
2.19

SSVg Velbert creates 59% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 60 away

creates per match

Kray
1.73
SSVg Velbert
1.95

allows per match

Kray
2.44
SSVg Velbert
1.03

finishing

Kray+0.00on par
SSVg Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kray ↓

SSVg Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kray or draw
44%
Kray or SSVg Velbert
79%
Draw or SSVg Velbert
76%

Winning margin

Kray wins by 2+
10%
SSVg Velbert wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Kray 1+ goals
75%
Kray 2+ goals
40%
Kray 3+ goals
16%
SSVg Velbert 1+ goals
89%
SSVg Velbert 2+ goals
64%
SSVg Velbert 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Kray (draw refunded)
30%
SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kray at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

SSVg Velbert away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kray attack 1.73 + SSVg Velbert defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.38

SSVg Velbert attack 1.95 + Kray defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kray scores more
24%
level
21%
SSVg Velbert scores more
56%

SSVg Velbert at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kray vs SSVg Velbert — Match Preview

Kray face SSVg Velbert on April 18, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kray host SSVg Velbert at KrayArena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.