SSVg Velbert 2–1 FSV Duisburg: Result & Stats

SSVg Velbert

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FSV Duisburg

8/28/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 5IMS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

SSVg Velbert75%

×Draw15%

FSV Duisburg10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSVg VelbertExpected goals in this matchFSV Duisburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

0.93

SSVg Velbert

2.77

FSV Duisburg

0.93

SSVg Velbert creates 198% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 42 away

2.86

creates per match

0.93

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

SSVg Velbert

2.86

FSV Duisburg

0.93

allows per match

SSVg Velbert

0.93

FSV Duisburg

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSVg Velbert+0.00on par

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSVg Velbert ↓

FSV Duisburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

SSVg Velbert or draw

90%

SSVg Velbert or FSV Duisburg

85%

Draw or FSV Duisburg

25%

Winning margin

SSVg Velbert wins by 2+

54%

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

SSVg Velbert 1+ goals

94%

SSVg Velbert 2+ goals

76%

SSVg Velbert 3+ goals

51%

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals

61%

FSV Duisburg 2+ goals

24%

FSV Duisburg 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)

88%

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSVg Velbert at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSVg Velbert attack 2.86 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.77

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + SSVg Velbert defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

SSVg Velbert scores more

75%

level

15%

FSV Duisburg scores more

10%

SSVg Velbert at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff