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FSV Duisburg vs SSVg Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
SSVg Velbert
SSVg Velbert
12/12/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 16Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

FSV Duisburg22%
×Draw21%
SSVg Velbert57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Duisburg
1.21
SSVg Velbert
2.06

SSVg Velbert creates 70% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 60 away

creates per match

FSV Duisburg
1.38
SSVg Velbert
1.95

allows per match

FSV Duisburg
2.17
SSVg Velbert
1.03

finishing

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par
SSVg Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Duisburg ↓

SSVg Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FSV Duisburg or draw
43%
FSV Duisburg or SSVg Velbert
79%
Draw or SSVg Velbert
78%

Winning margin

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
9%
SSVg Velbert wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
70%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
34%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
12%
SSVg Velbert 1+ goals
87%
SSVg Velbert 2+ goals
61%
SSVg Velbert 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
28%
SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Duisburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.17 · 40 matches

SSVg Velbert away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Duisburg attack 1.38 + SSVg Velbert defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

SSVg Velbert attack 1.95 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FSV Duisburg scores more
22%
level
21%
SSVg Velbert scores more
57%

SSVg Velbert at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FSV Duisburg vs SSVg Velbert

SSVg Velbert beat FSV Duisburg 2-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg in Duisburg.