SSV Ulm 1846 1–1 Hamburger SV: Result & Stats

SSV Ulm 1846

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hamburger SV

A. Keller 34'

D. Selke 49'

12/14/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 16Donaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SSV Ulm 184633%

×Draw25%

Hamburger SV42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV Ulm 1846Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.54

SSV Ulm 1846

1.33

Hamburger SV

1.54

Hamburger SV creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

1.24

creates per match

1.80

1.29

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

SSV Ulm 1846

1.24

Hamburger SV

1.80

allows per match

SSV Ulm 1846

1.29

Hamburger SV

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Ulm 1846 ↓

Hamburger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

SSV Ulm 1846 or draw

58%

SSV Ulm 1846 or Hamburger SV

75%

Draw or Hamburger SV

67%

Winning margin

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

14%

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

74%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

38%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

15%

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

79%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

45%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

44%

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.24 + Hamburger SV defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hamburger SV attack 1.80 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

33%

level

25%

Hamburger SV scores more

42%

Hamburger SV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Keller

SSV Ulm 1846 · M

7.7

Match Events

9'

21'

34'

41'

41'

45+2'

46'

46'

I. Pherai← M. Richter

49'

D. Selke↳ M. Muheim

65'

L. Perrin← D. Hadžikadunić

68'

Daniel Elfadli

68'

Daniel Elfadli

72'

Ł. Poręba← A. Karabec

80'

A. Kahvić← D. Chessa

86'

R. Königsdörffer← D. Selke

89'

L. Röser← A. Keller

89'

N. Castelle← S. Telalović

90+5'

Max Brandt

90+4'

Miro Muheim

90+3'

Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SSVHamburger

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots6

5Corners2

14Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots6

4On Target2

8Off Target4

2Blocked0

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box0

Passing

50%Possession50%

451Total Passes447

356Accurate Passes358

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls17

3Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

1Offsides4

Match Recap: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV

SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on December 14, 2024.

Goals: A. Keller (34'), D. Selke (49').

SSV Ulm 1846 controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Donaustadion in Ulm.

SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV