Hamburger SV 6–1 SSV Ulm 1846: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

SSV Ulm 1846

Daniel Elfadli 86'

R. Königsdörffer 62', 42'

P. Strompf 49' (OG)

D. Selke 45+4'

L. Reis 10'

T. Gaal 7'

5/10/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 33Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hamburger SV57%

×Draw23%

SSV Ulm 184620%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SVExpected goals in this matchSSV Ulm 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.98

Hamburger SV

1.84

SSV Ulm 1846

0.98

Hamburger SV creates 88% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

2.15

creates per match

0.88

1.08

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Hamburger SV

2.15

SSV Ulm 1846

0.88

allows per match

Hamburger SV

1.08

SSV Ulm 1846

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw

80%

Hamburger SV or SSV Ulm 1846

77%

Draw or SSV Ulm 1846

43%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

33%

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

84%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

55%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

28%

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

62%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

26%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

74%

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.15 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.84

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.88 + Hamburger SV defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hamburger SV scores more

57%

level

23%

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

20%

Hamburger SV at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Königsdörffer

Hamburger SV · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

T. Gaal↳ P. Strompf

10'

L. Reis↳ M. Muheim

34'

Felix HiglPenalty confirmed

35'

Miro Muheim

36'

Semir TelalovićMissed penalty

40'

Emir Sahiti

42'

R. Königsdörffer↳ E. Sahiti

45+4'

D. Selke↳ J. Dompé

46'

Fábio Baldé← E. Sahiti

46'

D. Chessa← A. Keller

49'

P. StrompfOwn goal

61'

Tom Gaal

62'

R. Königsdörffer↳ M. Muheim

67'

L. Röser← S. Telalović

67'

A. Ludwig← M. Krattenmacher

69'

A. Karabec← R. Königsdörffer

69'

R. Glatzel← D. Selke

73'

William Mikelbrencis

80'

M. Richter← Ł. Poręba

81'

O. Stange← M. Muheim

84'

J. Reichert← R. Rösch

86'

Daniel Elfadli↳ R. Glatzel

89'

R. Leipertz← F. Higl

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HamburgerSSV

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots17

3Corners6

10Fouls5

Shots

15Total Shots17

10On Target4

5Off Target8

0Blocked5

8Inside Box12

7Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

345Total Passes376

281Accurate Passes298

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls5

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1