SSV ULM 1846 1–3 FC Schalke 04: Result & Stats

SSV ULM 1846

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

FC Schalke 04

J. Reichert 82'

B. Raman 62', 51'

S. Serdar 27'

12/22/2020

DFB Pokal · 2nd RoundVELTINS-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SSV ULM 184614%

×Draw17%

FC Schalke 0468%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV ULM 1846Expected goals in this matchFC Schalke 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

2.50

SSV ULM 1846

1.06

FC Schalke 04

2.50

FC Schalke 04 creates 136% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

0.75

creates per match

2.86

2.13

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

SSV ULM 1846

0.75

FC Schalke 04

2.86

allows per match

SSV ULM 1846

2.13

FC Schalke 04

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV ULM 1846+0.00on par

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV ULM 1846 ↓

FC Schalke 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

SSV ULM 1846 or draw

32%

SSV ULM 1846 or FC Schalke 04

83%

Draw or FC Schalke 04

86%

Winning margin

SSV ULM 1846 wins by 2+

5%

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

SSV ULM 1846 1+ goals

65%

SSV ULM 1846 2+ goals

29%

SSV ULM 1846 3+ goals

9%

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals

92%

FC Schalke 04 2+ goals

71%

FC Schalke 04 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

SSV ULM 1846 (draw refunded)

17%

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV ULM 1846 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV ULM 1846 attack 0.75 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.06

FC Schalke 04 attack 2.86 + SSV ULM 1846 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

SSV ULM 1846 scores more

14%

level

17%

FC Schalke 04 scores more

68%

FC Schalke 04 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

B. Raman

FC Schalke 04 · M

8.6

Match Events

27'

S. Serdar↳ B. Oczipka

35'

44'

46'

48'

51'

62'

B. Raman↳ S. Skrzybski

67'

68'

72'

72'

77'

C. Bozdogan← A. Harit

78'

79'

82'

89'

89'

A. Kutucu← S. Skrzybski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SSVFC

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots12

7Corners2

14Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots12

6On Target10

4Off Target2

5Blocked0

9Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

435Total Passes502

321Accurate Passes406

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls18

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1