FC Schalke 04 2–1 SSV Ulm 1846: Result & Stats

FC Schalke 04

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

SSV Ulm 1846

M. Kamiński 88'

P. Seguin 59'

F. Higl 40'

4/6/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 28VELTINS-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Schalke 0451%

×Draw24%

SSV Ulm 184626%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Schalke 04Expected goals in this matchSSV Ulm 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.16

FC Schalke 04

1.73

SSV Ulm 1846

1.16

FC Schalke 04 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.93

creates per match

0.88

1.43

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

FC Schalke 04

1.93

SSV Ulm 1846

0.88

allows per match

FC Schalke 04

1.43

SSV Ulm 1846

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schalke 04 ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Schalke 04 or draw

74%

FC Schalke 04 or SSV Ulm 1846

76%

Draw or SSV Ulm 1846

49%

Winning margin

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+

27%

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals

82%

FC Schalke 04 2+ goals

52%

FC Schalke 04 3+ goals

25%

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

69%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

32%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)

66%

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schalke 04 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.93 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.73

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.88 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Schalke 04 scores more

51%

level

24%

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

26%

FC Schalke 04 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

P. Seguin

FC Schalke 04 · M

8.2

Match Events

40'

F. Higl↳ O. Batista Meier

59'

P. Seguin↳ K. Karaman

64'

P. Meïssa Ba← A. Younes

65'

M. Grüger← A. Barkok

67'

S. Telalović← L. Röser

67'

M. Krattenmacher← O. Batista Meier

73'

D. Murkin← A. Donkor

74'

Adrian Gantenbein

74'

T. Mohr← M. Sylla

81'

83'

86'

86'

88'

M. Kamiński↳ P. Seguin

90+3'

M. Talabidi← P. Meïssa Ba

90+1'

N. Kolbe← P. Strompf

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSSV

Overview

57%Possession43%

17Total Shots13

4Corners2

15Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots13

4On Target5

6Off Target5

7Blocked3

13Inside Box6

4Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

489Total Passes364

406Accurate Passes278

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1