SSV Ulm 1846 3–1 Eintracht Braunschweig

SSV Ulm 1846

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Eintracht Braunschweig

F. Higl 84' (pen)

M. Krattenmacher 39'

R. Rösch 14'

L. Szabó 76'

9/27/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 7Donaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SSV Ulm 184648%

×Draw25%

Eintracht Braunschweig27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV Ulm 1846Expected goals in this matchEintracht Braunschweig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.12

SSV Ulm 1846

1.58

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.12

SSV Ulm 1846 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 91 away

1.24

creates per match

0.95

1.29

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

SSV Ulm 1846

1.24

Eintracht Braunschweig

0.95

allows per match

SSV Ulm 1846

1.29

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Ulm 1846 ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

SSV Ulm 1846 or draw

73%

SSV Ulm 1846 or Eintracht Braunschweig

75%

Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig

52%

Winning margin

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

25%

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

79%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

47%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

21%

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

67%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

31%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

64%

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.24 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.58

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.95 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

48%

level

25%

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

27%

SSV Ulm 1846 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SSV Ulm 1846 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

M. Krattenmacher

SSV Ulm 1846 · F

8.6

Match Events

14'

R. Rösch

22'

Philipp Strompf

39'

M. Krattenmacher↳ D. Chessa

45+4'

Paul Jaeckel

45+3'

Sven Köhler

46'

M. Marie← M. Rittmüller

46'

L. Bell Bell← F. Di Michele Sanchez

46'

49'

49'

54'

66'

76'

83'

84'

F. HiglPenalty

85'

L. Röser← F. Higl

85'

L. Stoll← B. Allgeier

87'

88'

90+3'

90+8'

90+8'

J. Nelson← M. Krattenmacher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SSVEintracht

Overview

45%Possession55%

18Total Shots11

3Corners5

11Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots11

6On Target2

6Off Target4

6Blocked5

11Inside Box5

7Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

361Total Passes434

276Accurate Passes345

76%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: SSV Ulm 1846 3–1 Eintracht Braunschweig

SSV Ulm 1846 beat Eintracht Braunschweig 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on September 27, 2024.

Goals: R. Rösch (14'), M. Krattenmacher (39'), L. Szabó (76'), F. Higl (84' pen).

Eintracht Braunschweig controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 18.

The match was played at Donaustadion in Ulm.

SSV Ulm 1846 vs Eintracht Braunschweig — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

2. Bundesliga: SSV Ulm 1846 3–1 Eintracht Braunschweig