Eintracht Braunschweig 1–1 SSV Ulm 1846

Eintracht Braunschweig

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

SSV Ulm 1846

S. Polter 85'

L. Röser 11'

3/1/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 24Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig44%

×Draw27%

SSV Ulm 184630%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht BraunschweigExpected goals in this matchSSV Ulm 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.11

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.41

SSV Ulm 1846

1.11

Eintracht Braunschweig creates 27% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 17 away

1.29

creates per match

0.88

1.35

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.29

SSV Ulm 1846

0.88

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.35

SSV Ulm 1846

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw

70%

Eintracht Braunschweig or SSV Ulm 1846

73%

Draw or SSV Ulm 1846

56%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

21%

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

76%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

41%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

17%

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

67%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

30%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

60%

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.29 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.88 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

44%

level

27%

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

30%

Eintracht Braunschweig at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Eintracht Braunschweig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Polter

Eintracht Braunschweig · F

7.7

Match Events

8'

11'

38'

42'

46'

48'

62'

F. Kaufmann← M. Rittmüller

63'

S. Köhler← E. Bičakčić

63'

J. Meier← A. Keller

63'

D. Chessa← R. Rösch

63'

S. Telalović← L. Röser

74'

R. Tachie← J. Baas

74'

F. Higl← M. Krattenmacher

78'

Robert Ivanov

79'

D. Dressel← O. Batista Meier

83'

S. Polter← K. Ehlers

85'

S. Polter↳ R. Philippe

90+5'

Luka Hyrylainen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EintrachtSSV

Overview

67%Possession33%

18Total Shots11

8Corners4

18Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots11

2On Target4

11Off Target2

5Blocked5

8Inside Box4

10Outside Box7

Passing

67%Possession33%

506Total Passes262

400Accurate Passes155

79%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846

Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846 drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on March 1, 2025.

Goals: L. Röser (11'), S. Polter (85').

Eintracht Braunschweig controlled possession (67%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Eintracht-Stadion in Braunschweig.

Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846