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SSV Ulm 1846 vs Bayern München II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SSV Ulm 1846
SSV Ulm 1846
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bayern München II
Bayern München II
O. Wahling 55', 43'
M. Seegert 36'
Y. Gashi 75'
7/19/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SSV Ulm 184642%
×Draw21%
Bayern München II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSV Ulm 1846
2.13
Bayern München II
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

SSV Ulm 1846
1.89
Bayern München II
2.00

allows per match

SSV Ulm 1846
2.00
Bayern München II
2.38

finishing

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par
Bayern München II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Ulm 1846 ↓

Bayern München II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

SSV Ulm 1846 or draw
63%
SSV Ulm 1846 or Bayern München II
79%
Draw or Bayern München II
58%

Winning margin

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+
24%
Bayern München II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals
88%
SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals
63%
SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals
35%
Bayern München II 1+ goals
86%
Bayern München II 2+ goals
59%
Bayern München II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)
53%
Bayern München II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Bayern München II away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.89 + Bayern München II defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.13

Bayern München II attack 2.00 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more
42%
level
21%
Bayern München II scores more
37%

SSV Ulm 1846 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SSV Ulm 1846 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
R. Mijatovic
36'
M. Seegert
43'
O. Wahling
55'
O. Wahling
75'
Y. Gashi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Bayern München II

SSV Ulm 1846 beat Bayern München II 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 19, 2026.

Goals: M. Seegert (36'), O. Wahling (43', 55'), Y. Gashi (75').