Bayern München II 0–2 SSV ULM 1846: Result & Stats

Bayern München II

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SSV ULM 1846

S. Klostermann 48'

P. Harres 12'

1/28/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bayern München II23%

×Draw22%

SSV ULM 184655%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München IIExpected goals in this matchSSV ULM 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.93

Bayern München II

1.16

SSV ULM 1846

1.93

SSV ULM 1846 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.57

creates per match

2.00

1.86

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Bayern München II

0.57

SSV ULM 1846

2.00

allows per match

Bayern München II

1.86

SSV ULM 1846

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München II+0.00on par

SSV ULM 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München II ↓

SSV ULM 1846 →

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bayern München II or draw

45%

Bayern München II or SSV ULM 1846

78%

Draw or SSV ULM 1846

77%

Winning margin

Bayern München II wins by 2+

SSV ULM 1846 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Bayern München II 1+ goals

69%

Bayern München II 2+ goals

32%

Bayern München II 3+ goals

11%

SSV ULM 1846 1+ goals

85%

SSV ULM 1846 2+ goals

57%

SSV ULM 1846 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Bayern München II (draw refunded)

29%

SSV ULM 1846 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bayern München II at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

SSV ULM 1846 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München II attack 0.57 + SSV ULM 1846 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.16

SSV ULM 1846 attack 2.00 + Bayern München II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bayern München II scores more

23%

level

22%

SSV ULM 1846 scores more

55%

SSV ULM 1846 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SSV ULM 1846 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

P. Harres

48'

S. Klostermann

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff