SSV Ulm 1846 1–2 1. FC Nürnberg: Result & Stats

SSV Ulm 1846

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

1. FC Nürnberg

S. Telalović 51'

T. Duman 90+9' (pen)

S. Tzimas 64'

9/14/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 5Donaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SSV Ulm 184642%

×Draw25%

1. FC Nürnberg33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV Ulm 1846Expected goals in this match1. FC Nürnberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.33

SSV Ulm 1846

1.52

1. FC Nürnberg

1.33

SSV Ulm 1846 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 123 away

1.24

creates per match

1.38

1.29

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

SSV Ulm 1846

1.24

1. FC Nürnberg

1.38

allows per match

SSV Ulm 1846

1.29

1. FC Nürnberg

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

1. FC Nürnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Ulm 1846 ↓

1. FC Nürnberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

SSV Ulm 1846 or draw

67%

SSV Ulm 1846 or 1. FC Nürnberg

75%

Draw or 1. FC Nürnberg

58%

Winning margin

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

21%

1. FC Nürnberg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

78%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

45%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

20%

1. FC Nürnberg 1+ goals

74%

1. FC Nürnberg 2+ goals

38%

1. FC Nürnberg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

56%

1. FC Nürnberg (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

1. FC Nürnberg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.80 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.24 + 1. FC Nürnberg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.38 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

42%

level

25%

1. FC Nürnberg scores more

33%

SSV Ulm 1846 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SSV Ulm 1846 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

C. Ortag

SSV Ulm 1846 · G

8.2

Match Events

21'

Philipp Maier

28'

B. Allgeier← L. Stoll

45+1'

Caspar Jander

46'

D. Chessa← J. Nelson

46'

M. Brandt← P. Maier

51'

S. Telalović↳ J. Reichert

54'

Julian Justvan

57'

Maurice KrattenmacherGoal cancelled

58'

Kanji Okunuki

58'

S. Tzimas← B. Goller

58'

K. Okunuki← D. Forkel

64'

S. Tzimas↳ J. Castrop

65'

67'

68'

72'

81'

L. Ulrich← S. Telalović

81'

F. Higl← L. Hyryläinen

88'

Laurin Ulrich

90+9'

Christian Ortag

90+6'

Johannes Reichert

90+7'

Lukas SchleimerMissed penalty

90+9'

Taylan Duman

90+10'

Stefanos Tzimas

90+12'

Stefanos TzimasVAR

90+8'

Kanji OkunukiPenalty confirmed

90+13'

O. Karafiát← C. Jander

90+9'

T. DumanPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SSV1.

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots16

2Corners6

13Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots16

3On Target9

6Off Target1

3Blocked6

6Inside Box10

6Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

358Total Passes491

288Accurate Passes406

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls13

5Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0