1. FC Nürnberg 2–0 SSV Ulm 1846: Result & Stats

1. FC Nürnberg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SSV Ulm 1846

J. Antiste 90+3'

C. Jander 85'

2/16/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 22Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

1. FC Nürnberg44%

×Draw26%

SSV Ulm 184629%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC NürnbergExpected goals in this matchSSV Ulm 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.13

1. FC Nürnberg

1.45

SSV Ulm 1846

1.13

1. FC Nürnberg creates 28% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 17 away

1.36

creates per match

0.88

1.37

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

1. FC Nürnberg

1.36

SSV Ulm 1846

0.88

allows per match

1. FC Nürnberg

1.37

SSV Ulm 1846

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. FC Nürnberg+0.00on par

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Nürnberg ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

1. FC Nürnberg or draw

71%

1. FC Nürnberg or SSV Ulm 1846

74%

Draw or SSV Ulm 1846

56%

Winning margin

1. FC Nürnberg wins by 2+

22%

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

1. FC Nürnberg 1+ goals

77%

1. FC Nürnberg 2+ goals

42%

1. FC Nürnberg 3+ goals

18%

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

68%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

31%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

1. FC Nürnberg (draw refunded)

60%

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Nürnberg at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.37 · 124 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.36 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.88 + 1. FC Nürnberg defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

1. FC Nürnberg scores more

44%

level

26%

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

29%

1. FC Nürnberg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "1. FC Nürnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

C. Jander

1. FC Nürnberg · M

8.2

Match Events

20'

Berkay Yılmaz

31'

Maurice Krattenmacher

34'

Luka Hyrylainen

46'

J. Reichert← N. Kolbe

59'

Maurice Krattenmacher

59'

Maurice Krattenmacher

69'

J. Antiste← R. Lubach

69'

Danilo Soares← B. Yılmaz

73'

R. Leipertz← S. Telalović

79'

T. Janisch← O. Villadsen

85'

90'

90'

90+2'

90+2'

S. Joachims← C. Jander

90'

L. Röser← A. Keller

90'

F. Higl← M. Brandt

90'

B. Allgeier← O. Batista Meier

90+3'

J. Antiste

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.SSV

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots7

11Corners5

14Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots7

6On Target1

4Off Target3

8Blocked3

10Inside Box4

8Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

538Total Passes369

473Accurate Passes297

88%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1