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SSV Merten vs Bonn-Endenich — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

SSV Merten
SSV Merten
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bonn-Endenich
Bonn-Endenich
5/23/2025Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 27MerKur Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

SSV Merten70%
×Draw16%
Bonn-Endenich14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSV Merten
2.66
Bonn-Endenich
1.10

SSV Merten creates 142% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

creates per match

SSV Merten
2.97
Bonn-Endenich
1.03

allows per match

SSV Merten
1.17
Bonn-Endenich
2.34

finishing

SSV Merten+0.00on par
Bonn-Endenich+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Merten ↓

Bonn-Endenich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SSV Merten or draw
86%
SSV Merten or Bonn-Endenich
84%
Draw or Bonn-Endenich
30%

Winning margin

SSV Merten wins by 2+
49%
Bonn-Endenich wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

SSV Merten 1+ goals
93%
SSV Merten 2+ goals
74%
SSV Merten 3+ goals
49%
Bonn-Endenich 1+ goals
67%
Bonn-Endenich 2+ goals
30%
Bonn-Endenich 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SSV Merten (draw refunded)
84%
Bonn-Endenich (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Merten at home — creates 2.97, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Bonn-Endenich away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Merten attack 2.97 + Bonn-Endenich defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.66

Bonn-Endenich attack 1.03 + SSV Merten defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

SSV Merten scores more
70%
level
16%
Bonn-Endenich scores more
14%

SSV Merten at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "SSV Merten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: SSV Merten 1–1 Bonn-Endenich

SSV Merten and Bonn-Endenich drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at MerKur Kunstrasenplatz in Bornheim.