Bonn-Endenich 0–1 SSV Merten: Result & Stats

Bonn-Endenich

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SSV Merten

11/10/2024

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 12Kunstrasenplatz Röckumstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bonn-Endenich22%

×Draw20%

SSV Merten57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonn-EndenichExpected goals in this matchSSV Merten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.20

Bonn-Endenich

1.31

SSV Merten

2.20

SSV Merten creates 68% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.40

creates per match

2.23

2.17

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Bonn-Endenich

1.40

SSV Merten

2.23

allows per match

Bonn-Endenich

2.17

SSV Merten

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonn-Endenich+0.00on par

SSV Merten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonn-Endenich ↓

SSV Merten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Bonn-Endenich or draw

43%

Bonn-Endenich or SSV Merten

80%

Draw or SSV Merten

78%

Winning margin

Bonn-Endenich wins by 2+

9%

SSV Merten wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Bonn-Endenich 1+ goals

73%

Bonn-Endenich 2+ goals

38%

Bonn-Endenich 3+ goals

14%

SSV Merten 1+ goals

89%

SSV Merten 2+ goals

64%

SSV Merten 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Bonn-Endenich (draw refunded)

28%

SSV Merten (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonn-Endenich at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

SSV Merten away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonn-Endenich attack 1.40 + SSV Merten defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

SSV Merten attack 2.23 + Bonn-Endenich defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bonn-Endenich scores more

22%

level

20%

SSV Merten scores more

57%

SSV Merten at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SSV Merten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff