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SSU Poli Timişoara W vs Ladies Târgu Mureş W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

SSU Poli Timişoara W
SSU Poli Timişoara W
FT
7 – 1
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
11/7/2023Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 9Stadionul Ştiinţa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

SSU Poli Timişoara W83%
×Draw10%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSU Poli Timişoara W
4.00
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.21

SSU Poli Timişoara W creates 231% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 35 away

creates per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W
3.54
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.34

allows per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W
1.08
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
4.46

finishing

SSU Poli Timişoara W+0.00on par
Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSU Poli Timişoara W ↓

Ladies Târgu Mureş W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

SSU Poli Timişoara W or draw
93%
SSU Poli Timişoara W or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
90%
Draw or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
17%

Winning margin

SSU Poli Timişoara W wins by 2+
67%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

SSU Poli Timişoara W 1+ goals
98%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 2+ goals
90%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 3+ goals
73%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals
70%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals
34%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SSU Poli Timişoara W (draw refunded)
92%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSU Poli Timişoara W at home — creates 3.54, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W away — creates 1.34, concedes 4.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSU Poli Timişoara W attack 3.54 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 4.46 → ÷2 → 4.00

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.34 + SSU Poli Timişoara W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

SSU Poli Timişoara W scores more
83%
level
10%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more
7%

SSU Poli Timişoara W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "SSU Poli Timişoara W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: SSU Poli Timişoara W 7–1 Ladies Târgu Mureş W

SSU Poli Timişoara W beat Ladies Târgu Mureş W 7-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Ştiinţa in Timişoara.