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Ladies Târgu Mureş W vs SSU Poli Timişoara W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
FT
0 – 3
SSU Poli Timişoara W
SSU Poli Timişoara W
11/7/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 8Academia de Sport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W21%
×Draw17%
SSU Poli Timişoara W62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.61
SSU Poli Timişoara W
2.82

SSU Poli Timişoara W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 46 away

creates per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.56
SSU Poli Timişoara W
2.39

allows per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
3.25
SSU Poli Timişoara W
1.67

finishing

Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par
SSU Poli Timişoara W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ladies Târgu Mureş W ↓

SSU Poli Timişoara W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Ladies Târgu Mureş W or draw
38%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W or SSU Poli Timişoara W
83%
Draw or SSU Poli Timişoara W
79%

Winning margin

Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+
9%
SSU Poli Timişoara W wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals
80%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals
48%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals
22%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 1+ goals
94%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 2+ goals
77%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)
25%
SSU Poli Timişoara W (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ladies Târgu Mureş W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.25 · 32 matches

SSU Poli Timişoara W away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.56 + SSU Poli Timişoara W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

SSU Poli Timişoara W attack 2.39 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more
21%
level
17%
SSU Poli Timişoara W scores more
62%

SSU Poli Timişoara W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "SSU Poli Timişoara W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Ladies Târgu Mureş W 0–3 SSU Poli Timişoara W

SSU Poli Timişoara W beat Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Academia de Sport in Târgu Mureș.