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SS Sfaxien vs Menzel Nour — Ligue 2 2020

SS Sfaxien
SS Sfaxien
FT
1 – 0
Menzel Nour
Menzel Nour
2/27/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade 2 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SS Sfaxien54%
×Draw26%
Menzel Nour20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Sfaxien
1.50
Menzel Nour
0.79

SS Sfaxien creates 90% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

SS Sfaxien
1.00
Menzel Nour
0.45

allows per match

SS Sfaxien
1.14
Menzel Nour
2.00

finishing

SS Sfaxien+0.00on par
Menzel Nour+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Sfaxien ↓

Menzel Nour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SS Sfaxien or draw
80%
SS Sfaxien or Menzel Nour
74%
Draw or Menzel Nour
46%

Winning margin

SS Sfaxien wins by 2+
28%
Menzel Nour wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SS Sfaxien 1+ goals
78%
SS Sfaxien 2+ goals
44%
SS Sfaxien 3+ goals
19%
Menzel Nour 1+ goals
55%
Menzel Nour 2+ goals
19%
Menzel Nour 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
73%
Menzel Nour (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Sfaxien at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Menzel Nour away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Sfaxien attack 1.00 + Menzel Nour defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Menzel Nour attack 0.45 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SS Sfaxien scores more
54%
level
26%
Menzel Nour scores more
20%

SS Sfaxien at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SS Sfaxien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: SS Sfaxien 1–0 Menzel Nour

SS Sfaxien beat Menzel Nour 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stade 2 Mars in Sfax.