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Menzel Nour vs SS Sfaxien — Ligue 2 2020

Menzel Nour
Menzel Nour
FT
1 – 0
SS Sfaxien
SS Sfaxien
4/4/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Municipal de Menzel Ennour

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Menzel Nour56%
×Draw27%
SS Sfaxien17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Nour
1.44
SS Sfaxien
0.67

Menzel Nour creates 115% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 22 away

creates per match

Menzel Nour
1.25
SS Sfaxien
0.59

allows per match

Menzel Nour
0.75
SS Sfaxien
1.64

finishing

Menzel Nour+0.00on par
SS Sfaxien+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Nour ↓

SS Sfaxien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Menzel Nour or draw
83%
Menzel Nour or SS Sfaxien
73%
Draw or SS Sfaxien
44%

Winning margin

Menzel Nour wins by 2+
28%
SS Sfaxien wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Menzel Nour 1+ goals
76%
Menzel Nour 2+ goals
42%
Menzel Nour 3+ goals
18%
SS Sfaxien 1+ goals
49%
SS Sfaxien 2+ goals
15%
SS Sfaxien 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Menzel Nour (draw refunded)
76%
SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Nour at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

SS Sfaxien away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Nour attack 1.25 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

SS Sfaxien attack 0.59 + Menzel Nour defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Menzel Nour scores more
56%
level
27%
SS Sfaxien scores more
17%

Menzel Nour at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Menzel Nour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Menzel Nour 1–0 SS Sfaxien

Menzel Nour beat SS Sfaxien 1-0 in Ligue 2 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Menzel Ennour in Menzel Ennour.