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SS Sfaxien vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane — Ligue 2 2020

SS Sfaxien
SS Sfaxien
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
11/20/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SS Sfaxien28%
×Draw30%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Sfaxien
0.89
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.15

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane creates 29% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

SS Sfaxien
1.00
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.17

allows per match

SS Sfaxien
1.14
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.78

finishing

SS Sfaxien+0.00on par
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Sfaxien ↓

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SS Sfaxien or draw
58%
SS Sfaxien or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
70%
Draw or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
72%

Winning margin

SS Sfaxien wins by 2+
10%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

SS Sfaxien 1+ goals
59%
SS Sfaxien 2+ goals
22%
SS Sfaxien 3+ goals
6%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
68%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
32%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
40%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Sfaxien at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Sfaxien attack 1.00 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 1.17 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SS Sfaxien scores more
28%
level
30%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
42%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SS Sfaxien vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane beat SS Sfaxien 4-0 in Ligue 2 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2 in Safāqis.