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Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs SS Sfaxien — Ligue 2 2020

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SS Sfaxien
SS Sfaxien
4/1/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane67%
×Draw20%
SS Sfaxien12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.98
SS Sfaxien
0.71

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane creates 179% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
2.33
SS Sfaxien
0.59

allows per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.83
SS Sfaxien
1.64

finishing

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par
SS Sfaxien+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane ↓

SS Sfaxien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or draw
88%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or SS Sfaxien
80%
Draw or SS Sfaxien
33%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
42%
SS Sfaxien wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
86%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
59%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
31%
SS Sfaxien 1+ goals
51%
SS Sfaxien 2+ goals
16%
SS Sfaxien 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
84%
SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

SS Sfaxien away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 2.33 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.98

SS Sfaxien attack 0.59 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
67%
level
20%
SS Sfaxien scores more
12%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1–0 SS Sfaxien

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane beat SS Sfaxien 1-0 in Ligue 2 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane in Tunis.