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SS Sfaxien vs EGS Gafsa — Ligue 2 2020

SS Sfaxien
SS Sfaxien
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
10/30/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SS Sfaxien39%
×Draw29%
EGS Gafsa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Sfaxien
1.14
EGS Gafsa
1.01

SS Sfaxien creates 13% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 36 away

creates per match

SS Sfaxien
1.00
EGS Gafsa
0.89

allows per match

SS Sfaxien
1.14
EGS Gafsa
1.28

finishing

SS Sfaxien+0.00on par
EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Sfaxien ↓

EGS Gafsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SS Sfaxien or draw
68%
SS Sfaxien or EGS Gafsa
71%
Draw or EGS Gafsa
61%

Winning margin

SS Sfaxien wins by 2+
16%
EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SS Sfaxien 1+ goals
68%
SS Sfaxien 2+ goals
32%
SS Sfaxien 3+ goals
11%
EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
64%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
27%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
55%
EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Sfaxien at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Sfaxien attack 1.00 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SS Sfaxien scores more
39%
level
29%
EGS Gafsa scores more
32%

SS Sfaxien at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SS Sfaxien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SS Sfaxien vs EGS Gafsa

EGS Gafsa beat SS Sfaxien 1-0 in Ligue 2 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2 in Safāqis.