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EGS Gafsa vs SS Sfaxien — Ligue 2 2020

EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
SS Sfaxien
SS Sfaxien
3/11/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade du 7 Novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

EGS Gafsa63%
×Draw24%
SS Sfaxien13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EGS Gafsa
1.63
SS Sfaxien
0.57

EGS Gafsa creates 186% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 22 away

creates per match

EGS Gafsa
1.63
SS Sfaxien
0.59

allows per match

EGS Gafsa
0.55
SS Sfaxien
1.64

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par
SS Sfaxien+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

SS Sfaxien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw
87%
EGS Gafsa or SS Sfaxien
76%
Draw or SS Sfaxien
37%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
35%
SS Sfaxien wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
80%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
48%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
22%
SS Sfaxien 1+ goals
43%
SS Sfaxien 2+ goals
11%
SS Sfaxien 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
83%
SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

SS Sfaxien away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

SS Sfaxien attack 0.59 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more
63%
level
24%
SS Sfaxien scores more
13%

EGS Gafsa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: EGS Gafsa 3–0 SS Sfaxien

EGS Gafsa beat SS Sfaxien 3-0 in Ligue 2 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du 7 Novembre in Gafsa.