SS Reyes 1–0 San Fernando CD: Result & Stats

SS Reyes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Fernando CD

2/5/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SS Reyes35%

×Draw29%

San Fernando CD37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SS ReyesExpected goals in this matchSan Fernando CD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.14

SS Reyes

1.10

San Fernando CD

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 19 away

0.88

creates per match

0.95

1.33

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

SS Reyes

0.88

San Fernando CD

0.95

allows per match

SS Reyes

1.33

San Fernando CD

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par

San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

San Fernando CD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw

63%

SS Reyes or San Fernando CD

71%

Draw or San Fernando CD

65%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+

14%

San Fernando CD wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals

67%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

30%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

10%

San Fernando CD 1+ goals

68%

San Fernando CD 2+ goals

32%

San Fernando CD 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

49%

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

San Fernando CD attack 0.95 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SS Reyes scores more

35%

level

29%

San Fernando CD scores more

37%

San Fernando CD at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff