San Fernando CD 1–1 SS Reyes: Result & Stats

San Fernando CD

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SS Reyes

R. del Campo 86'

Juanra 57'

9/24/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

San Fernando CD44%

×Draw26%

SS Reyes30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Fernando CDExpected goals in this matchSS Reyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.12

San Fernando CD

1.42

SS Reyes

1.12

San Fernando CD creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 53 away

1.47

creates per match

0.92

1.32

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

San Fernando CD

1.47

SS Reyes

0.92

allows per match

San Fernando CD

1.32

SS Reyes

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par

SS Reyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

SS Reyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw

70%

San Fernando CD or SS Reyes

74%

Draw or SS Reyes

56%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+

21%

SS Reyes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals

76%

San Fernando CD 2+ goals

41%

San Fernando CD 3+ goals

17%

SS Reyes 1+ goals

67%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

31%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)

60%

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

SS Reyes away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.36 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.47 + SS Reyes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

SS Reyes attack 0.92 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Fernando CD scores more

44%

level

26%

SS Reyes scores more

30%

San Fernando CD at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

A. Villapalos

57'

Juanra

62'

R. del Campo← J. Biabiany

62'

Rodrigo Sanz← Bicho

66'

A. Coulibaly← Borja Giner

67'

Javi Navarro← Juanmi Callejón

76'

Marcelo Ribeiro← Jon Ceberio

79'

Javi Gómez← Pedro Benito

82'

Ribeiro

86'

R. del Campo

88'

S. Nieto

90'

Alberto Ródenas← Arturo

San

SS

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Salva Ballesta

62'▲R. del Campo←▼J. Biabiany

62'▲Rodrigo Sanz←▼Bicho

67'▲Javi Navarro←▼Juanmi Callejón

76'▲Marcelo Ribeiro←▼Jon Ceberio

San Fernando CD substitutes

CampoSanzNavarroRibeiroMarínMedinaChairaFalcónPáezCaballeroAyala

Manager: Luis Ayllón

66'▲A. Coulibaly←▼Borja Giner

79'▲Javi Gómez←▼Pedro Benito

90'▲Alberto Ródenas←▼Arturo

SS Reyes substitutes

CoulibalyGómezRódenasApaAtoAndrésMecerreyes

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: San Fernando CD 1–1 SS Reyes

San Fernando CD and SS Reyes drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 24, 2022.

Goals: Juanra (57'), R. del Campo (86').

The match was played at Estadio Iberoamericano 2010 in San Fernando.

San Fernando CD vs SS Reyes — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: San Fernando CD 1–1 SS Reyes