SS Reyes 0–1 Racing Santander: Result & Stats

SS Reyes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Santander

4/1/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SS Reyes28%

×Draw27%

Racing Santander45%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SS ReyesExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.40

SS Reyes

1.04

Racing Santander

1.40

Racing Santander creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 19 away

0.88

creates per match

1.47

1.33

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

SS Reyes

0.88

Racing Santander

1.47

allows per match

SS Reyes

1.33

Racing Santander

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Racing Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw

55%

SS Reyes or Racing Santander

73%

Draw or Racing Santander

72%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+

10%

Racing Santander wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals

65%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

28%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

9%

Racing Santander 1+ goals

75%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

41%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

38%

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + Racing Santander defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Racing Santander attack 1.47 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SS Reyes scores more

28%

level

27%

Racing Santander scores more

45%

Racing Santander at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff