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SS Reyes II vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

SS Reyes II
SS Reyes II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Leganés II
Leganés II
12/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SS Reyes II36%
×Draw26%
Leganés II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Reyes II
1.31
Leganés II
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

creates per match

SS Reyes II
1.29
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

SS Reyes II
0.82
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

SS Reyes II+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes II ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

SS Reyes II or draw
62%
SS Reyes II or Leganés II
74%
Draw or Leganés II
64%

Winning margin

SS Reyes II wins by 2+
16%
Leganés II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SS Reyes II 1+ goals
73%
SS Reyes II 2+ goals
38%
SS Reyes II 3+ goals
14%
Leganés II 1+ goals
74%
Leganés II 2+ goals
39%
Leganés II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes II (draw refunded)
49%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes II attack 1.29 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Leganés II attack 1.89 + SS Reyes II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SS Reyes II scores more
36%
level
26%
Leganés II scores more
38%

Leganés II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SS Reyes II vs Leganés II

SS Reyes II beat Leganés II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera in San Sebastián de los Reyes.