Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leganés II vs SS Reyes II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Leganés II
Leganés II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
SS Reyes II
SS Reyes II
4/12/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Instalación Deportiva Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leganés II42%
×Draw27%
SS Reyes II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganés II
1.32
SS Reyes II
1.08

Leganés II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

creates per match

Leganés II
1.41
SS Reyes II
1.35

allows per match

Leganés II
0.82
SS Reyes II
1.24

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par
SS Reyes II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

SS Reyes II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw
70%
Leganés II or SS Reyes II
73%
Draw or SS Reyes II
58%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+
19%
SS Reyes II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals
73%
Leganés II 2+ goals
38%
Leganés II 3+ goals
15%
SS Reyes II 1+ goals
66%
SS Reyes II 2+ goals
29%
SS Reyes II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)
58%
SS Reyes II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

SS Reyes II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + SS Reyes II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

SS Reyes II attack 1.35 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leganés II scores more
42%
level
27%
SS Reyes II scores more
30%

Leganés II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leganés II vs SS Reyes II

SS Reyes II beat Leganés II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Instalación Deportiva Butarque in Leganés.