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Sremčica vs Crvena Zvezda MML — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Sremčica
Sremčica
FT
3 – 2
Crvena Zvezda MML
Crvena Zvezda MML
4/11/2021Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 27Sportski Centar Ada Ciganlija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sremčica51%
×Draw24%
Crvena Zvezda MML26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sremčica
1.72
Crvena Zvezda MML
1.15

Sremčica creates 50% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

Sremčica
1.44
Crvena Zvezda MML
0.81

allows per match

Sremčica
1.48
Crvena Zvezda MML
2.00

finishing

Sremčica+0.00on par
Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sremčica ↓

Crvena Zvezda MML →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sremčica or draw
74%
Sremčica or Crvena Zvezda MML
76%
Draw or Crvena Zvezda MML
49%

Winning margin

Sremčica wins by 2+
27%
Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sremčica 1+ goals
82%
Sremčica 2+ goals
51%
Sremčica 3+ goals
25%
Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals
68%
Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals
32%
Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sremčica (draw refunded)
66%
Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sremčica at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

Crvena Zvezda MML away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sremčica attack 1.44 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 0.81 + Sremčica defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sremčica scores more
51%
level
24%
Crvena Zvezda MML scores more
26%

Sremčica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sremčica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Sremčica 3–2 Crvena Zvezda MML

Sremčica beat Crvena Zvezda MML 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Ada Ciganlija in Beograd.