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Crvena Zvezda MML vs Sremčica — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Crvena Zvezda MML
Crvena Zvezda MML
FT
3 – 2
Sremčica
Sremčica
9/27/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 8Stadion Mali Mokri Lug

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Crvena Zvezda MML42%
×Draw25%
Sremčica34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crvena Zvezda MML
1.56
Sremčica
1.38

Crvena Zvezda MML creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Crvena Zvezda MML
1.29
Sremčica
1.57

allows per match

Crvena Zvezda MML
1.18
Sremčica
1.82

finishing

Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par
Sremčica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crvena Zvezda MML ↓

Sremčica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Crvena Zvezda MML or draw
66%
Crvena Zvezda MML or Sremčica
75%
Draw or Sremčica
58%

Winning margin

Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+
21%
Sremčica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals
79%
Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals
46%
Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals
21%
Sremčica 1+ goals
75%
Sremčica 2+ goals
40%
Sremčica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)
55%
Sremčica (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crvena Zvezda MML at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Sremčica away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 1.29 + Sremčica defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sremčica attack 1.57 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crvena Zvezda MML scores more
42%
level
25%
Sremčica scores more
34%

Crvena Zvezda MML at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Crvena Zvezda MML will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crvena Zvezda MML vs Sremčica

Crvena Zvezda MML beat Sremčica 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Mali Mokri Lug in Beograde.