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Sreenidi Deccan vs Mohammedan — I-League 2019

Sreenidi Deccan
Sreenidi Deccan
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Mohammedan
Mohammedan
12/1/2022I-LeagueI-League · Round 5Deccan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sreenidi Deccan43%
×Draw25%
Mohammedan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sreenidi Deccan
1.52
Mohammedan
1.29

Sreenidi Deccan creates 18% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sreenidi Deccan
1.96
Mohammedan
1.37

allows per match

Sreenidi Deccan
1.22
Mohammedan
1.08

finishing

Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par
Mohammedan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sreenidi Deccan ↓

Mohammedan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sreenidi Deccan or draw
68%
Sreenidi Deccan or Mohammedan
75%
Draw or Mohammedan
57%

Winning margin

Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+
21%
Mohammedan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals
78%
Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals
45%
Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals
20%
Mohammedan 1+ goals
72%
Mohammedan 2+ goals
37%
Mohammedan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)
57%
Mohammedan (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sreenidi Deccan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

Mohammedan away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.96 + Mohammedan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mohammedan attack 1.37 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sreenidi Deccan scores more
43%
level
25%
Mohammedan scores more
32%

Sreenidi Deccan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sreenidi Deccan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sreenidi Deccan vs Mohammedan

Sreenidi Deccan beat Mohammedan 4-3 in I-League on December 1, 2022.

The match was played at Deccan Arena in Hyderabad.