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Mohammedan vs Sreenidi Deccan — I-League 2019

Mohammedan
Mohammedan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sreenidi Deccan
Sreenidi Deccan
12/3/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 8Naihati Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Mohammedan40%
×Draw24%
Sreenidi Deccan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohammedan
1.57
Sreenidi Deccan
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 51 away

creates per match

Mohammedan
1.90
Sreenidi Deccan
1.59

allows per match

Mohammedan
1.32
Sreenidi Deccan
1.25

finishing

Mohammedan+0.00on par
Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan ↓

Sreenidi Deccan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mohammedan or draw
64%
Mohammedan or Sreenidi Deccan
76%
Draw or Sreenidi Deccan
60%

Winning margin

Mohammedan wins by 2+
20%
Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mohammedan 1+ goals
79%
Mohammedan 2+ goals
46%
Mohammedan 3+ goals
21%
Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals
77%
Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals
43%
Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan (draw refunded)
53%
Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

Sreenidi Deccan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan attack 1.90 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.59 + Mohammedan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mohammedan scores more
40%
level
24%
Sreenidi Deccan scores more
36%

Mohammedan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mohammedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Mohammedan 2–1 Sreenidi Deccan

Mohammedan beat Sreenidi Deccan 2-1 in I-League on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Naihati Stadium in Naihati.