Sreenidi Deccan 2–1 Kenkre: Result & Stats

Sreenidi Deccan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kenkre

4/1/2022

I-League · Round 9Naihati Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sreenidi Deccan57%

×Draw23%

Kenkre20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sreenidi DeccanExpected goals in this matchKenkre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.96

Sreenidi Deccan

1.81

Kenkre

0.96

Sreenidi Deccan creates 89% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 24 away

1.96

creates per match

0.71

1.22

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sreenidi Deccan

1.96

Kenkre

0.71

allows per match

Sreenidi Deccan

1.22

Kenkre

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par

Kenkre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sreenidi Deccan ↓

Kenkre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sreenidi Deccan or draw

80%

Sreenidi Deccan or Kenkre

77%

Draw or Kenkre

43%

Winning margin

Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+

33%

Kenkre wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals

84%

Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals

54%

Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals

27%

Kenkre 1+ goals

62%

Kenkre 2+ goals

25%

Kenkre 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)

74%

Kenkre (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sreenidi Deccan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

Kenkre away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.96 + Kenkre defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kenkre attack 0.71 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sreenidi Deccan scores more

57%

level

23%

Kenkre scores more

20%

Sreenidi Deccan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sreenidi Deccan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff