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Kenkre vs Sreenidi Deccan — I-League 2019

Kenkre
Kenkre
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sreenidi Deccan
Sreenidi Deccan
1/23/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 13The Cooperage Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kenkre27%
×Draw24%
Sreenidi Deccan49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kenkre
1.16
Sreenidi Deccan
1.66

Sreenidi Deccan creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kenkre
1.07
Sreenidi Deccan
1.59

allows per match

Kenkre
1.73
Sreenidi Deccan
1.25

finishing

Kenkre+0.00on par
Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenkre ↓

Sreenidi Deccan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kenkre or draw
51%
Kenkre or Sreenidi Deccan
76%
Draw or Sreenidi Deccan
73%

Winning margin

Kenkre wins by 2+
11%
Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kenkre 1+ goals
69%
Kenkre 2+ goals
32%
Kenkre 3+ goals
11%
Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals
81%
Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals
49%
Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kenkre (draw refunded)
35%
Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenkre at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Sreenidi Deccan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenkre attack 1.07 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.59 + Kenkre defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kenkre scores more
27%
level
24%
Sreenidi Deccan scores more
49%

Sreenidi Deccan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sreenidi Deccan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kenkre vs Sreenidi Deccan

Kenkre beat Sreenidi Deccan 2-1 in I-League on January 23, 2023.

The match was played at The Cooperage Ground in Mumbai, Mahārāṣṭra.