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Sreenidi Deccan vs Inter Kashi — I-League 2019

Sreenidi Deccan
Sreenidi Deccan
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Kashi
Inter Kashi
11/3/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 2Deccan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sreenidi Deccan48%
×Draw24%
Inter Kashi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sreenidi Deccan
1.74
Inter Kashi
1.30

Sreenidi Deccan creates 34% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sreenidi Deccan
1.96
Inter Kashi
1.39

allows per match

Sreenidi Deccan
1.22
Inter Kashi
1.52

finishing

Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par
Inter Kashi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sreenidi Deccan ↓

Inter Kashi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sreenidi Deccan or draw
71%
Sreenidi Deccan or Inter Kashi
76%
Draw or Inter Kashi
52%

Winning margin

Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+
26%
Inter Kashi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals
82%
Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals
52%
Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals
25%
Inter Kashi 1+ goals
73%
Inter Kashi 2+ goals
37%
Inter Kashi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)
62%
Inter Kashi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sreenidi Deccan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

Inter Kashi away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.96 + Inter Kashi defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.74

Inter Kashi attack 1.39 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sreenidi Deccan scores more
48%
level
24%
Inter Kashi scores more
29%

Sreenidi Deccan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sreenidi Deccan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sreenidi Deccan vs Inter Kashi

Sreenidi Deccan beat Inter Kashi 4-1 in I-League on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Deccan Arena in Hyderabad.