Inter Kashi 1–1 Sreenidi Deccan: Result & Stats

Inter Kashi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sreenidi Deccan

4/8/2024

I-League · Round 25Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Inter Kashi42%

×Draw22%

Sreenidi Deccan36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter KashiExpected goals in this matchSreenidi Deccan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.65

Inter Kashi

1.80

Sreenidi Deccan

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 51 away

2.35

creates per match

1.59

1.70

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Inter Kashi

2.35

Sreenidi Deccan

1.59

allows per match

Inter Kashi

1.70

Sreenidi Deccan

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Kashi+0.00on par

Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Kashi ↓

Sreenidi Deccan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Inter Kashi or draw

64%

Inter Kashi or Sreenidi Deccan

78%

Draw or Sreenidi Deccan

58%

Winning margin

Inter Kashi wins by 2+

22%

Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Inter Kashi 1+ goals

83%

Inter Kashi 2+ goals

54%

Inter Kashi 3+ goals

27%

Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals

81%

Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals

49%

Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Inter Kashi (draw refunded)

54%

Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Kashi at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Sreenidi Deccan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Kashi attack 2.35 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.59 + Inter Kashi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Inter Kashi scores more

42%

level

22%

Sreenidi Deccan scores more

36%

Inter Kashi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Inter Kashi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff