SpVgg Unterhaching 0–2 Würzburger Kickers

SpVgg Unterhaching

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Würzburger Kickers

10/31/2025

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 16Uhlsport Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

SpVgg Unterhaching36%

×Draw24%

Würzburger Kickers40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg UnterhachingExpected goals in this matchWürzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.56

SpVgg Unterhaching

1.47

Würzburger Kickers

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 55 away

2.18

creates per match

2.09

1.04

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

SpVgg Unterhaching

2.18

Würzburger Kickers

2.09

allows per match

SpVgg Unterhaching

1.04

Würzburger Kickers

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par

Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Unterhaching ↓

Würzburger Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

SpVgg Unterhaching or draw

60%

SpVgg Unterhaching or Würzburger Kickers

76%

Draw or Würzburger Kickers

64%

Winning margin

SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+

17%

Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals

77%

SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals

43%

SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals

18%

Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals

79%

Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals

46%

Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)

47%

Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Unterhaching at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.04 · 55 matches

Würzburger Kickers away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 2.18 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.47

Würzburger Kickers attack 2.09 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SpVgg Unterhaching scores more

36%

level

24%

Würzburger Kickers scores more

40%

Würzburger Kickers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff