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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs SpVgg Unterhaching — League #80 2026

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
SpVgg Unterhaching
SpVgg Unterhaching
L. Pfeiffer 46'
L. Hufnagel 75'
C. Greger 67' (pen)
1/25/2020League #80League #80 · Round 21flyeralarm-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers15%
×Draw27%
SpVgg Unterhaching58%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.58
SpVgg Unterhaching
1.42

SpVgg Unterhaching creates 145% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.33
SpVgg Unterhaching
1.17

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.67
SpVgg Unterhaching
0.83

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

SpVgg Unterhaching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–119%
0–214%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
42%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or SpVgg Unterhaching
73%
Draw or SpVgg Unterhaching
85%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
4%
SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
44%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
12%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
2%
SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals
76%
SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals
41%
SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
21%
SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

SpVgg Unterhaching away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.33 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.58

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 1.17 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
15%
level
27%
SpVgg Unterhaching scores more
58%

SpVgg Unterhaching at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SpVgg Unterhaching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Christoph Greger
45'
Luca Pfeiffer
46'
F. Schröter← M. Dombrowka
46'
L. Pfeiffer↳ F. Kaufmann
60'
Markus Schwabl
60'
F. Müller← S. Bigalke
67'
C. GregerPenalty
68'
J. Müller← F. Müller
72'
Luca Pfeiffer
72'
Luca Pfeiffer
75'
L. Hufnagel↳ F. Schröter
76'
Vincent Müller
80'
D. Baumann← L. Kwadwo
85'
D. Widemann← A. Vrenezi
85'
D. Meisel← P. Sontheimer
86'
Markus Schwabl
86'
Markus Schwabl

Statistics

FCSpVgg
Overview
13Corners2
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards1

League #80: FC Wurzburger Kickers 1–2 SpVgg Unterhaching

SpVgg Unterhaching beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 2-1 in League #80 on January 25, 2020.

Goals: L. Pfeiffer (46'), C. Greger (67' pen), L. Hufnagel (75').

The match was played at flyeralarm-Arena in Würzburg.