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SpVgg Unterhaching vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — League #80 2026

SpVgg Unterhaching
SpVgg Unterhaching
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
F. Porath 63'
J. Müller 42'
S. Hain 18'
S. Skarlatidis 79'
O. Ademi 48'
3/17/2018League #80League #80 · Round 30Generali Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SpVgg Unterhaching51%
×Draw22%
FC Wurzburger Kickers28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Unterhaching
2.04
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.46

SpVgg Unterhaching creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

SpVgg Unterhaching
2.14
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.21

allows per match

SpVgg Unterhaching
1.71
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.93

finishing

SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Unterhaching ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

SpVgg Unterhaching or draw
72%
SpVgg Unterhaching or FC Wurzburger Kickers
78%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
49%

Winning margin

SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+
30%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals
87%
SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals
60%
SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals
33%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
77%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
43%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)
65%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Unterhaching at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 2.14 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.04

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.21 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SpVgg Unterhaching scores more
51%
level
22%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
28%

SpVgg Unterhaching at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SpVgg Unterhaching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
S. Hain↳ S. Bigalke
42'
J. Müller↳ S. Bigalke
48'
O. Ademi↳ M. Königs
56'
D. Mast← K. Wagner
63'
F. Porath↳ J. Müller
71'
F. Kaufmann← S. Schuppan
79'
S. Skarlatidis↳ P. Göbel
80'
T. Steinherr← J. Müller
84'
O. Kiomourtzoglou← F. Porath
90+1'
M. Bauer← S. Bigalke
90'
F. Müller← P. Göbel

Statistics

SpVggFC
Overview
3Corners6
Discipline
0Red Cards0

League #80: SpVgg Unterhaching 3–2 FC Wurzburger Kickers

SpVgg Unterhaching beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 3-2 in League #80 on March 17, 2018.

Goals: S. Hain (18'), J. Müller (42'), O. Ademi (48'), F. Porath (63'), S. Skarlatidis (79').

The match was played at Generali Sportpark in Unterhaching.