SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–0 Preußen Münster

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Preußen Münster

11/7/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 12Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth47%

×Draw24%

Preußen Münster29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg Greuther FürthExpected goals in this matchPreußen Münster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.28

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.70

Preußen Münster

1.28

SpVgg Greuther Fürth creates 33% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 34 away

1.61

creates per match

1.15

1.42

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.61

Preußen Münster

1.15

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.42

Preußen Münster

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Fürth ↓

Preußen Münster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw

71%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Preußen Münster

76%

Draw or Preußen Münster

53%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

25%

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

82%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

51%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

24%

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

72%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

37%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

62%

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.42 · 119 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.61 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

47%

level

24%

Preußen Münster scores more

29%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Fürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff