Preußen Münster 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Preußen Münster

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1/18/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 18Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Preußen Münster41%

×Draw26%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen MünsterExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Fürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.25

Preußen Münster

1.42

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.25

Preußen Münster creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 120 away

1.15

creates per match

1.25

1.26

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Preußen Münster

1.15

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.25

allows per match

Preußen Münster

1.26

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster ↓

SpVgg Greuther Fürth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Preußen Münster or draw

67%

Preußen Münster or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

74%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

59%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

19%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

76%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

41%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

17%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

71%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

36%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

55%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.42

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.25 + Preußen Münster defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Preußen Münster scores more

41%

level

26%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

33%

Preußen Münster at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Preußen Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff